Resilient and social health service network design to reduce the effect of COVID-19 outbreak.

With the severe outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), researchers are motivated to develop efficient methods to face related issues. The present study aims to design a resilient health system to offer medical services to COVID-19 patients and prevent further disease outbreaks by social distancing, resiliency, cost, and commuting distance as decisive factors. It incorporated three novel resiliency measures (i.e., health facility criticality, patient dissatisfaction level, and dispersion of suspicious people) to promote the designed health network against potential infectious disease threats. Also, it introduced a novel hybrid uncertainty programming to resolve a mixed degree of the inherent uncertainty in the multi-objective problem, and it adopted an interactive fuzzy approach to address it. The actual data obtained from a case study in Tehran province in Iran proved the strong performance of the presented model. The findings show that the optimum use of medical centers' potential and the corresponding decisions result in a more resilient health system and cost reduction. A further outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic is also prevented by shortening the commuting distance for patients and avoiding the increasing congestion in the medical centers. Also, the managerial insights show that establishing and evenly distributing camps and quarantine stations within the community and designing an efficient network for patients with different symptoms result in the optimum use of the potential capacity of medical centers and a decrease in the rate of bed shortage in the hospitals. Another insight drawn is that an efficient allocation of the suspect and definite cases to the nearest screening and care centers makes it possible to prevent the disease carriers from commuting within the community and increase the coronavirus transmission rate.

Design of control strategies to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper proposes control strategies to allocate COVID-19 patients to screening facilities, health facilities, and quarantine facilities for minimizing the spread of the virus by these patients. To calculate the transmission rate, we propose a function that accounts for contact rate, duration of the contact, age structure of the population, susceptibility to infection, and the number of transmission events per contact. Moreover, the COVID-19 cases are divided into different groups according to the severity of their disease and are allocated to appropriate health facilities that provide care tailored to their needs. The multi-stage fuzzy stochastic programming approach is applied to cope with uncertainty, in which the probability associated with nodes of the scenario tree is treated as fuzzy variables. To handle the probabilistic model, we use a more flexible measure, M e measure, which allows decision-makers to adopt varying attitudes by assigning the optimistic-pessimistic parameter. This measure does not force decision-makers to hold extreme views and obtain the interval solution that provides further information in the fuzzy environment. We apply the proposed model to the case of Tehran, Iran. The results of this study indicate that assigning patients to appropriate medical centers improves the performance of the healthcare system. The result analysis highlights the impact of the demographic differences on virus transmission, and the older population has a greater influence on virus transmission than other age groups. Besides, the results indicate that behavioral changes in the population and their vaccination play a key role in curbing COVID-19 transmission.

A novel capacity sharing mechanism to collaborative activities in the blood collection process during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Because of government intervention, such as quarantine and cancellation of public events at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak and donors' health scare of exposure to the virus in medical centers, the number of blood donors has considerably decreased. In some countries, the rate of blood donation has reached lower than 30%. Accordingly, in this study, to fill the lack of blood product during COVID-19, especially at the outbreak's peak, we propose a novel mechanism by providing a two-stage optimization tool for coordinating activities to mitigate the shortage in this urgent situation. In the first stage, a blood collection plan considering disruption risk in supply to minimize the unmet demand will be solved. Afterward, in the second stage, the collected units will be shared between regions by applying the capacity sharing concept to avoid the blood shortage in health centers. Moreover, to tackle the uncertainty and disruption risk, a novel stochastic model combining the mixed uncertainty approach is tailored. A rolling horizon planning method is implemented under an iterative procedure to provide and share the limited blood resources to solve the proposed model. A real-world case study of Iran is investigated to examine the applicability and performance of the proposed model; it should be noted that the designed mechanism is not confined just to this case. Obtained computational results indicate the applicability of the model, the superior performance of the capacity sharing concept, and the effectiveness of the designed mechanism for mitigating the shortage and wastage during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Designing a testing kit supply network for suspected COVID-19 cases under mixed uncertainty approach.

Motivated by the COVID-19 (C-19) pandemic and the challenges it poses to global health and the medical communities, this research aims to investigate the factors affecting of reduction health inequalities related to the C-19 to tackle the increasing number of outbreaks and their social consequences in such a pandemic. Hence, we design a COVID-19 testing kit supply network (C-19TKSN) to allocate various C-19 test kits to the suspected C-19 cases depending on the time between the emergence of their first symptoms and the time they are tested. In particular, this model aims to minimize the total network cost and decrease false results C-19 test by considering the fundamental characteristics of a diagnostic C-19 test (i.e., specificity and sensitivity). In the sensitivity characteristic, a gamma formula is presented to estimate the error rate of false-negative results. The nature of the C-19TKSN problem is dynamic over time due to difficult predictions and changes in the number of C-19 patients. For this reason, we consider the potential demands relating to different regions of the suspected C-19 cases for various C-19 test kits and the rate of prevalence of C-19 as stochastic parameters. Accordingly, a multi-stage stochastic programming (MSSP) method with a combined scenario tree is proposed to deal with the stochastic data in a dynamic environment. Then, a fuzzy approach is employed based on M e measure to cope with the epistemic uncertainty of input data. Eventually, the practicality and capability of the proposed model are shown in a real-life case in Iran. The results demonstrate that the performance of the MSSP model is significantly better in comparison with the two-stage stochastic programming (TSSP) model regarding the false results and the total cost of the network.

An integrated socially responsible-efficient approach toward health service network design.

Despite the fact that medical responses are crucial for saving precious lives during any humanitarian crisis (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic), healthcare infrastructure in many communities are partially covered or are not covered yet. In order to strengthen the health system response to such crisis, especially in low- to middle-income communities, this paper extends a novel multi-objective model for designing a health service network under uncertainty which simultaneously considers efficiency, social responsibility, and network cost. For efficiency, a modified data envelopment analysis model is introduced and inserted into the proposed model to decrease the inefficiency of healthcare facilities belonging to the different tiers of the health system. For social responsibility, two measures of job creation and balanced development are incorporated into the extended model. This is not only considered to cope with the increased numbers of patients and disaster victims to healthcare facilities but also to deal with the challenge of the economy and the livelihoods of people during the crisis. Moreover, a novel mixed possibilistic-flexible robust programming (MPFRP) approach is developed to protect the considered network against uncertainty. To show the applicability of the extended model, a real-world case study is presented. The results reveal that contrary to fuzzy programming models, the MPFRP performs well in terms of social responsibility (72%), cost (8%), and efficiency (28%) and is able to make a trade-off between these three measures. In this study, the resilience level of the designed network is not addressed while disregarding any short-term stoppage owing to internal or external sources of disruption in designing may bring about a considerable loss.